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COMMODITY markets are awaiting for China to lift its zero-Covid policy to fuel a broad-based rally in commodities.
Analysts believe that the move can trigger a bull cycle in commodities especially industrial metal and energy which have been suffering low investments in the past few years and the lag period needed to achieve a demand-supply balance.
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The rise in agricultural commodities prices will be to a lesser extent and duration, but it is something that will be welcomed by Malaysian plantation companies as the change in Beijing’s policy could help raise exports of crude palm oil (CPO) at good prices and offset the lower intake year-to-date.
It could support the current CPO price levels for longer and reduce high local stock levels which have hit 2.4 million tonnes in October (31% higher year-on-year) due to Indonesia’s aggressive push to clear its own high stock levels ahead of an anticipated global economy weakening in 2023.
While the China market moving event is some months away, likely at the end of first quarter of 2023, Malaysian planters need a sustained high price for CPO to cover rising cost pressures.
The Covid-19 pandemic has raised input costs and exposed the soft underbelly for the industry which is the reliance on manpower for harvesting.,
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The shortage of labour in the sector, estimated at about 55,000, has led to a fall in the yields in the country. While Putrajaya has moved to re-allow the recruitment of manpower from abroad post pandemic, the outcome of the general election could determine how quickly that can be achieved.
Last year, Malaysian CPO production was 18.1 million tonnes as compared with nearly 19.7 million tonnes in 2018. This translates to a fresh fruit bunch yield of 15.5 tonnes or 3.1 tonne CPO per ha. This is a shortfall of nearly one tonne of oil per ha or equivalent to a loss of five million tonnes of CPO considering the country has a mature land bank of 5.2 million ha.
How much was that in loss of revenue?
Based on the average CPO price in 2021, the five million tonnes of CPO loss equated to a loss in revenue for CPO production of RM22bil.
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“The lower production for the past two years was largely influenced by labour issues. The oil palm sector is highly dependent on foreign workers. The temporary suspension of the workers during the Covid-19 pandemic years had significantly affected the production of palm oil.
“The severe shortage of labour had not only disrupted the harvesting process, it had also affected the manuring programme of the estates as the existing workers were redeployed to focus on harvesting. Since the temporary suspension of foreign worker hiring has been lifted, the production is expected to improve.,
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