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WITH less than three months until year end, bolstered prospects of robust Asian demand for crude oil in 2023 on easing travel restrictions and fears of further supply cuts by OPEC+ are likely to temper the impact of stock builds and macroeconomic recessionary fears, keeping global oil market sentiment balanced.

OPEC+ agreed Oct 5 to cut production quotas by 2 million b/d for the next 14 months though the impact on the actual production is far less than the headline cut.

“Given a clear OPEC+ willingness to support higher price objectives, an even larger cut could be on the way,” said JY Lim, adviser, oil market analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

According to the latest Platts survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the OPEC+ alliance boosted crude production by 170,000 b/d in September to the highest since April 2020.

However, it remained shy of pre-pandemic levels, with several members pumping well below their quotas.

As a result, the gap between the group’s quotas and actual production remained a sizable 3.6 million b/d, roughly the same as in August, the survey found.

Ahead of the midterm US elections Nov. 8, Biden administration officials said discussions will soon take place over a potential response to the recent OPEC+ output cut.

However, US policy options to contain near-term fuel prices range from limited to disruptive, with the easiest and most likely move being accelerated deliveries from strategic petroleum reserves.

“Our balances still assume stock builds beginning in October and lasting into 2023 despite lower OPEC supply and tapering SPR releases,” Lim said.

“But with announced and expected cuts from OPEC and the need for Europe to attract replacement volumes for sanctioned Russian imports, Dated Brent prices are expected to average near $90/b in Q4, bottom out in Q1/Q2 2023 to the low $80s/b and then recover in H2 2023,” Lim said.

Asia prepares for OPEC output jitters

In Asia, focusing on a longer-term strategy, refinery feedstock managers told S&P Global recently that they plan to hold multiple meetings with major term Middle Eastern crude suppliers to confirm and secure at least their very minimum monthly requirements for the next few quarters, fearing OPEC+ could implement further output cuts if benchmark prices fail to trend in the group's favor.

Although OPEC+ has pointed to growing concerns of a global economic recession to support its decision to trim output in October, Asian refiners argue the current global supply level is far from comfortable to cover even minimum base demand.

Any further cuts to OPEC+ production with a primary focus on propping up benchmark oil prices could potentially ignite Asia's interest in actively buying Russian and Iranian crudes, according to traders at refineries across India, Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia.

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